From Oversupply to Advantage: Why the Next Era of Wine Will Be Won on Decision Quality

Unified in Sacramento had a different energy this year. Less angst, less spin and a lot more realism. The market has changed, and the riskiest move now is pretending we’re going back to the way it was.

Over three days I heard the same sentence in different accents:

“We’ve got wine… but not the wine we can actually sell.”

That line is the difference between headline oversupply and usable supply, and it’s where decision quality starts to matter.

One slide I saw put it better than most commentary:

• Discipline over scale
• Occasions over categories
• Feeling over formality
• Innovation that pays
• Borrow from outside wine

It’s hard to argue with that. The safety net is gone. The rising tide isn’t lifting everyone anymore.

The market is splitting in two

SVB’s State of the U.S. Wine Industry 2026 doesn’t just say the market is down –  it says the gap between winners and strugglers is widening. Some wineries are still growing in a contracting category. Others are fighting to hold the line. SVB’s explanation is blunt: success today is behavioral, and passive demand is over.

On paper, that feels obvious. In practice, it changes everything.

Because if the advantage is behavioral, it’s not the prettiest narrative or the loudest scores. It’s decision quality - and the discipline to follow through.

Listening to Chuck Wagner from Caymus describe how they’ve stayed on the front foot was a live example of that mindset: less about appeasing critics, more about what consumers actually choose, and a relentless focus on execution.

Oversupply is the headline - but the risk is changing shape

Yes, the industry is still clearing oversupply. Bulk is abundant. Discounting is real. SVB makes an important distinction, though: a lot of discounting isn’t your brand being marked down in plain sight – it’s flowing through private label, which is growing quickly and soaking up high-quality bulk supply. In a strange way, that’s a pressure valve. It helps drain the ocean without setting fire to every branded price point.

And if you’re a savvy producer, it can also be an opportunity - a way to clear the right inventory strategically without teaching your consumer to wait for 30% off.

But the next phase is more nuanced - and you can already feel it in the conversations that matter.

Acreage is coming out. Crush is down. Growers and wineries are operating with tighter capital and less appetite for carrying risk. And even when people say “there’s plenty of wine,” the usable supply (the right vintages, right styles, right quality, in the right price bands) isn’t unlimited.

That creates the tension nobody loves saying out loud:

Inventory is a risk.

But being short of the right inventory later may be an even bigger risk.

SVB expects declines moderating in 2026, with a bumpy bottom forming in 2027–2028 and slow growth thereafter.

If that’s even directionally right, then the next 12–24 months matter: panic liquidation, under-investing in quality, or retreating from key price bands without a plan can leave wineries exposed when conditions stabilise.

And SVB’s warning is worth repeating: the bottom doesn’t mean “we go back to normal.” Waiting for the market to return to what it was is how good businesses get stranded.

The consumer didn’t disappear - they changed

One of the most useful reframes I heard was simple: Stop trying to prove the consumer wrong.

Wine leaned on gatekeepers for a long time - critics, insider language, subtle intimidation. That worked when demand was easy. It doesn’t now.

Consumers want:

• Fewer barriers
• Confidence in choice
• Clearer cues
• More everyday occasions
• Less intimidation

They’re also making decisions through a wellness lens - often in practical ways: calories, sugar, sleep, how they’ll feel tomorrow. SVB’s demographic framing aligns: younger cohorts drink across more categories and consume less.

So the competitive set isn’t just “other wine.” It’s everything: RTDs, spirits, no/low, functional beverages, and whatever else is winning wallet share that week.

The question isn’t “how do we make better wine?”
It’s “how do we make wine easier to choose, easier to justify, and easier to enjoy - more often?”

Health narratives and disclosure pressure aren’t going away

Alongside demand softness, the wellness narrative has momentum: Dry January, wearables, “sober curious,” big podcasts, public health messaging. You can debate science nuance, but commercially the direction is clear:

Perception has shifted. Scrutiny is rising. Transparency expectations are rising.

That means wineries need operational readiness for: disclosure requirements, defensible product truth, careful claims and careful cause marketing - fewer gimmicks, more clarity. This isn’t just comms. It’s capability.

Distribution is tightening - and the “US market” is hundreds of micro-markets

Route-to-market is another structural headwind. Retailers are rationalising SKUs. Menu space is tightening. Cocktails are winning mindshare. Staff turnover means fewer people actively selling wine.

The key insight: stop thinking about the US as one market. One of the most credible distributor voices I heard put it plainly: it’s not even state-level - it’s account profile and zip code. What works in one cluster of accounts in Florida might map to a cluster in Texas, not because of geography but because of who the consumer is and what the occasion looks like.

Opportunity hides in:

• Under-served secondary markets
• Account profiles with weak sets
• Pockets where the consumer fit is strong but velocity is missing

This is the moment where “we need better marketing” becomes the wrong answer. What’s needed is commercial precision at the point decisions are actually made: the account, the shelf, the menu, the price band, the occasion.

Price architecture is strategy now

The concept that kept surfacing: price architecture is strategy. Not “pricing.” Architecture.

The winners aren’t simply discounting or “premiumizing.” They’re deliberate about where they sit, how tiers are separated, what consumers can understand quickly, and what the market can actually support. SVB reinforces the point: pricing has to be integrated into strategy, not used as a strategy on its own.

If your ladder is confusing - or your SKU mix doesn’t match today’s occasions - you don’t get the benefit of the doubt.

Rebuilding occasions is execution, not theory

The most practical examples weren’t grand reinventions. They were disciplined execution: accessible tasting, comping friction away, by-the-glass options, events that create a reason to show up, hospitality designed around what guests want now.

None of that is revolutionary. It’s just focused.

A quick self-check

If you can’t answer these questions quickly, you don’t have a “marketing problem.” You have an operating system problem:

• Do you know your inventory days by SKU and which 20% is tying up most of your cash?
• Can you see depletions v shipments by region/account type (not just “we shipped it”)?
• Do you have a deliberate price ladder, or a tight cluster of tiers that confuse the buyer?
• Can you name the top 3 micro-markets you should stop forcing, and the top 3 you should double down on?
• Can you answer “what’s at risk” in 10 minutes without pulling six spreadsheets?

Most wineries aren’t missing effort. They’re missing visibility. And in a market like this, visibility is leverage.

Where vintrace fits

For years, many wineries bought systems like vintrace primarily for compliance and traceability - necessary, but defensive. What’s changed is how little room there is for error.

In this market, you don’t just need to know what you made. You need to know what’s at risk, what’s moving, what isn’t, and what decisions to make early - across inventory, price architecture, and execution. You can’t do that well on gut feel anymore. Not at scale. Not with this level of channel constraint and consumer fragmentation.

SVB describes winners as disciplined on inventory and cash, simplified on SKUs, outward-facing in execution, and aligned to the consumer.

That kind of execution requires operational systems that are trusted, accurate, and decision-ready - not just compliance-ready.

vintrace’s role, as we see it, is to be the operational backbone that makes disciplined execution possible: visibility into inventory and production reality, defensible product truth as scrutiny rises, and the foundation required to simplify, focus, and adapt as the cycle shifts.

Closing thought

I’m not in the camp that thinks wine is doomed. But I am in the camp that thinks we need to drop a few comforting myths:

• Demand will return “like it was”
• Distribution will magically reopen
• Premiumization alone saves the day
• Critics define taste
• Intuition scales in a market this segmented

The next era will reward the teams who simplify, focus, rebuild everyday relevance, and make hard decisions early - especially around inventory, pricing architecture, and where to show up.

In this era, decision quality is the advantage that compounds.

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